Baltic States Military - One of the great ducks of our time is that the Baltic states are indefensible. Although the reasons for this argument are rarely given, they revolve around the claim that not only does Russia have local conventional superiority, but that NATO cannot and generally does not have to protect them, making war with Russia a protracted one.
Few proponents of this argument bother to do a real military analysis of the situation. While it is true that Moscow has the real upper hand on the scene, NATO's vastly superior mobilization skills point to the real problem with this argument. It presupposes or implies a loss of will for NATO and a refusal to honor its commitment in the belief that Russia will quickly achieve a fait accompli that renders NATO counteraction ineffective or unnecessary and risks nuclear war. And of course, the last option is unthinkable. So we should just leave the game.
Baltic States Military
Moscow's military effort is primarily to win a short war full of nuclear threats to scare NATO into believing that it cannot and should not defend the Baltics. However, they were not attacked by Russia, despite its current superiority in that theater. Putin and his team have shown that they do not want to risk a protracted war that Moscow will surely lose and that will inevitably lead to their loss of power. What is certain is that Russia's efforts continue, despite indications that it may be preparing for a longer war if necessary, and perhaps even offensive action against Belarus. However, an effective conventional deterrent would continue to deter a Russian offensive in the Baltics regardless of what happens elsewhere, and would also create uncertainty in Russia about what NATO might do in the event of an offensive in Belarus.
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So the argument about the indefensibleness of the Baltics betrays a political agenda and, whether intentionally or not, furthers Russian interests in intimidating NATO into a pre-emptive capitulation. Moreover, this argument contradicts history. In the Crimean War, British ships bottle Russian ships. In 1914, during World War I, the outnumbered German army in the east not only defended the Baltics, but also inflicted a catastrophic defeat on the tsarist army at Tannenberg. In 1919-39, British ships and the threat of Allied defense kept Soviet imperialism at bay. And in 1941-45, the German army stood until the beginning of 1945, when it collapsed. This chronicle does not even mention the winter war with Finland in 1939-40. So the historical record shows that the Baltics can be defended against Russian forces that are formidable but not invincible.
However, the Baltic states can only be protected if there is a will to protect them and supported by the necessary investments for this purpose. The advice that they are indefensible is a delusion that is being confirmed.
NATO as a whole must continue to strengthen its air, anti-aircraft, naval, submarine, land (including armored) and electronic military forces to counter the Russian threat. But NATO must not only improve its capabilities, but also overcome logistical obstacles to get troops to the front lines and sustain them during what could become a protracted conflict. Recent press revelations of the logistical difficulties facing NATO in Central Europe suggest that it is insufficiently capable of producing and deploying more conventional, non-nuclear forces in Central and Eastern Europe; it is also necessary to invest in the logistical capacities necessary for their efficient continuation and to ensure a continuous flow of people and material to the front.
While amateurs discuss strategy, professionals discuss logistics. Investing 2 percent of GDP in defense, a number that many regions have not yet reached, is not enough. This investment must be complemented by investment in measurable and effective capabilities and must be sustained if the threat is under control. Deterring the threat by explaining to Russia that any attack would inevitably turn into a protracted conventional war would also negate the psychological value of Russian nuclear threats based on the belief that NATO might fear capitulation. When it becomes clear that Moscow cannot win a short war and get the job done without creating a long-term and total war in Europe, its nuclear threats will become less likely, given NATO's superior conventional and nuclear capabilities.
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Unfortunately, it is still true that in order to maintain peace in Central and Eastern Europe, we must prepare for war; that means we must develop an effective credible deterrence that includes strong logistical support for NATO forces across the continent. However, the rewards of going so far outweigh the risks involved. If nothing else, failure to make these investments in capabilities and logistics increases the risk of attack and the nuclear threat, and further extends the attractive but invalid presumption of invulnerability of the Baltic states. We must not only show that the Baltics can and will be protected; we must say clearly that NATO expects each of its members to fulfill their obligation to ensure the security of Europe. Otherwise, this duck about the indefensibleness of the Baltics would be true. And if this fiction is to be believed, the Baltics are not the only ones that are indefensible.
Image: Lithuanian troops, along with other troops from 11 NATO countries, take part in an urban warfare exercise during Exercise Iron Sword in a simulated town near Pabrada, Lithuania, December 2, 2016. REUTERS /Ints Kalnins
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COLOGNE - The governments of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania have agreed to step up mutual defense cooperation and vowed to explore a joint acquisition of new missile launchers amid concerns over Russian military moves in their neighborhood, the countries said in a joint statement.
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Monday's announcement follows a May 21 meeting of the three defense ministers in Siauliai, Lithuania, which was interpreted as a stepping stone to the June 14 NATO summit in Brussels.
"We have fully discussed expectations for the upcoming NATO summit with our Baltic partners," Estonian Defense Minister Kalle Laanet said in a statement released by his agency. "We believe that NATO must send a clear and strong message about the Russian threat and make collective defense the most important role of the alliance in the next decade."
The joint acquisition of weapons has been on the agenda of further Baltic cooperation for a long time. Today, according to the joint declaration, the countries decided to start preparatory work on a multiple launch missile system. The weapon will enter service after 2025.
"Earlier I noted that cooperation in the field of development of capabilities between Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania has great potential and a very important role in strengthening the security of the region," said Laanet. "The development of strategically important capabilities is resource-intensive, so we need to think carefully about how to ensure the most effective implementation of limited resources."
Baltic States Ready To Provide \
The three defense ministers emphasized air defense as a key capability they would like to strengthen within NATO. Baltic officials have been lobbying for years for the alliance to expand its air policing program in the region into a more comprehensive umbrella against all types of aerial threats.
Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania, formerly part of the Soviet Union, form an important strategic area in the eastern part of NATO. Russia's annexation of Crimea from Ukraine in 2014 raised concerns among the three countries that Russia could use tactics used during the operation to make a surprise move against the Baltics.
The countries' joint statement makes it clear that they are aware of the ongoing conflict in eastern Ukraine with a sense of excitement. They called for an increase in international military aid to Ukraine and Georgia with the idea of strengthening their defense and stability while improving interoperability with NATO countries.
The three governments welcomed "consultations" between the United States and allies on the Pentagon's ongoing global review of force posture, highlighting US troops on NATO's eastern flank as "one of the primary and most practical means of defense against an aggressive and revisionist Russia." "
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